All Terrorism leads to the Al Saud

The request for Pakistani support to invade Yemen and now the threats from “friendly Muslim Brotherly Countries” UAE and KUWAIT.

The sound bites and rationale been publicly stated about invading Yemen, sound eerily similar to the reasons put forward by Bush and Blair to invade Afghanistan and then Iraq !!!

They opened the route for a more powerful country to attack another simply on the basis of aprojected future possible danger from them. Pre emptive Defensive Aggression.  USA invades Afghanistan. USA invades Iraq, twice. Israel attacks the Arabs in 1967, Lebanon decades later and continues to occupy and increase its physical space. And now Saudi launches an air invasion on a terribly weak and poor “Brotherly Muslim Country”. Yemen. 
Ee did right by refusing NOT to get involved in YEMEN or in Saudi Arabia. The bogey being raised to defend the “Khana Kaaba” is just that, a bogey.

 The House of Saud, the Holy Sites and Nejd and Hejaz are very different entities. 

Mecca and Medina have survived, the First Saudi State, when all Holy Sites in Kufa and Karbala were destroyed by Abdul Aziz and his Wahabi, Ikhwan. 

This included the near destruction of the Prophet’s mosque, before these mad monsters were stopped. If the Khan e Kaaba can survive the Qaramthis who took Haj e Aswad away for decades only to return and throw it back.  If these sites can survive the debauchery of the Ottomans, the Egyptians and the Al Saud. Then they can survive.  
So really it’s  not  about the Holy Sites but the survival of the House of Saud and its atempt at Regional bad ass hegemony.  
This comedy is really tragic.  Here is a hugely powerful country, Saudi Arabia, the largest arms buyer in the world unleashing the might of its air force on a poor rag tag bunch of near starving Houthies and then DEMAND Pakistan to come to their DEFENCE ?? 
Are these guys for real?.

Here are some of the “Battle Honors” of the House of Saud.

1. Iraq – Iran War 1980 to 1989. 1 million military and civilian casualties. 3 Million maimed and injured for life. Major instigator and financial Backer of Iraq = Saudi Arabia = 30.6 Billion US Dollars.
2. 1975 – to date. 120 Billion dollars OFFICIALLY spent by Saudi Arabia to propagate its Wahabi / Salafi brand of militant and Jihadist Islam across the globe. Chief “beneficaries” of this “largesse” Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Phillipines, North America and Europe. 70% North American and European Mosques are Wahabi controlled and Saudi Funded. Guess where the ISIS European recruits come from !!
3. 1980 to 1989 – Afghanistan. War against the USSR, Chief financial backer = Saudi Arabia = plus 25,000 Saudi Jihadists came to fight in Afghanistan and look what havoc they are wreaking til date.
4. 1989 to 1993- War against Communist Regime in Afghanistan = Chief Financier = Saudi Arabia.
5. 1993 – 1996 – Civil War between Mujaheddin groups in Afghanistan. Chief sponsors Saudi Arabia and Iran.
6. 9/11. Attack ( conventional wisdom) 15 out of 19 Hijackers were Saudis.
7. Pakistan’s Terrorism menace and TTP. Arguably but conventionally accepted as correct, that majority of the foreign funding comes from private individuals and organisations from…guess again. 100 to 300 million sourced back to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait.
8. The “Invasion” of Bahrain to save a a despotic King with a 20% majority ruling over an 80% minority .
9. Syrian Civil War – 2011 to date – 250,000 Casualties. Main Financier of the Syrian Rebels – Saudi Arabia. A genocidal attempt to break the so called “Shia Crescent” linking Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
10. Chief Financier of ISIS / DAESH ( (now out of control) to defeat Assad = Saudi Arabia
11. Aggression and Invasion of Yemen, a fellow, brotherly, Muslim country = Saudi Arabia.

We cannot put boots on the ground and for what? To defend this terrible House of Saud against a rag tag army of Houthis or to defend them against their own people?. Who will attack them and why?. The Houthis? And if they can’t fight the Houthis should we? 

Against their own version of DAESH?  Do we want to get involved in a civil war?Against Iran? Can one seriously contemplate an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia?

Then defend them against whom and what?  Against their nearly century old export of Wahabi terrorism and militancy across the Islamic world?  Against their own terrible chickens which have come home to roost?

Pakistanis will suffer, of course as a consequence for showing some spine and using SPIAGRA, a formulation know to put some stiffness in the spines of hitherto nations with no self respect.  Our people living and working in the Gulf may not have it so good as we did.  Unfortunate but true.  But, perhaps now is the time, we stood up for ourselves, broke the begging bowl, cut the golden handcuffs of financial slavery which ties us to our so called “Brotherly Muslim Countries” and carve our own destiny. Painful but necessary and about time.

The FUTURE if this madness is not stopped.  And the dangerous rhetoric adopted by the Jammat Al Dawah and other ultra orthodiox wahabi friendly political parties such as the Alhle Sunnat Wal Jammat, the reconstituted Sipah e Sahaba and the Jamaat Ahle Hadith, the Wahabi / Hanblai / Salafi political party in Pakistan that the Two Holy Shrines are in danger of being attacked……

1. Shia – Sunni Regional war  to further spread in other countries Cause = Saudi Arabia.
2. Shia – Sunni Civil war in Pakistan = Cause = Saudi Arabia.
And we will rue the day we supported them in Yemen, for it will  put tremendous pressures on our unity and widen the existing fissures and with serious impact on a United Pakistan. Guaranteed

UAE’s Threat to Pakistan. An intemperate outburst unbecoming of a Friend


Dr. Gargash’s statement clearly shows the UAE and the GCC and Saudi Arabia are very angry. It appears that Saudi Arabia’s  chosen the good cop bad cop routine, with UAE being the bad cop.

Pakistan and UAE have had a close mutually beneficial relatioship since the country  became independant. Shaikh Zayed the founder and first Ruler considered Pakistan his second home. He was very liberal in helping Pakistan in times of economic hardship.

In return Pakistani engineers helped set up Etisalat and the power utilities. Pakistani military trained the UAE military.  Pakistani pilots trained UAE pilots. PIA  helped establish Emirates airlines.  Pakistani skilled and unskilled workers helped the Emirate establish and run its Banking,  Health care, Construction, educational and other sectors.

Millions of Pakistan have benefited tremendously, especially economically, from the economic opportunities in the UAE.

Internationally the relationship between the UAE situation was different. The UAE never came out in clear terms on Pakistan’s war against the TTP and Al Qaeda.

Unconfirmed reports base this on a commercial arrangement with these terrorist groups to not do anything in the UAE.

In return the UAE would not publicly say anything against them and will give them “protection” money.

The fact is that while the whole region was, and is in flames, nary a firecracker in the UAE.

But perhaps many don’t know about UAE’s “Neutral” stance on Kashmir.

UAE considered this an “internal issue” between Pakistan and India and has never supported Pakistan’s position.

In a nutshell, both countries helped each other economically  but with different positions in International relations, where each party had to take a partisan position.

To threaten Pakistan with consequences is certainly not what the doctor ordered. But an inappropriate, ill thought, outburst.

Coming down on Pakistan’s expatriate population in retaliation will also be able an intemperate and ill considered action with serious ramifications for the relationship and UAE’S future geo political landscape.

Dr. Gargash spoke in anger. His threat was certainly not the hallmark of a top diplomat of a friendly country.

Pakistan has its own internal demons to fight.

Friends should understand this and the fact that a strong united Pakistan is far better for the UAE then a fractured weak Pakistan.

Supporting an ill advised, poorly thought through military adventure in Yemen would have torn Pakistan from inside. And that would have been very serious not just for the UAE but the entire Region.

Ch. Nisar has done well to respond respectfully but firmly.

Only time will tell whether it’s ..”you’ve taken my lollipop”…. reaction which will continue, or saner heads in the UAE and more importantly Saudi Arabia, will prevail.

A link to the UAE position on Kashmir.

http://www.quora.com/Who-does-UAE-support-in-the-Kashmir-conflict-in-the-UN

Saudia Arabia’s Strategic Blunder in Yemen – Fighting the Wrong Enemy

My perspective is that Saudi Arabia made a huge strategic and tactical blunder and miscalculation in getting involved in this several decades long Yemeni civil war.

And I also think it’s fighting the wrong enemy. Their real enemy is Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and DAESH. Not the Houthies.

This civil war has been going in different forms since the 1960s after the Zaydi Imamate was overthrown and the country divided into the Communist North and Muslim South as two countries. North and South Yemen.

At that time the Saudis actively supported the Houthis against the communists who were supported by the Socialist Nasser and his Egyptian Army. Over the years the conflict has morphed taking tribal, factional, religious and sectarian forms. Between various tribes and factions,  Al Qaeda, Abdullah Saleh, Abd Rabo, the Zaydi Syeds and now a sub part of them, the Houthis.

So a real messy hell hole. And Saudi Arabia chooses to step into it. Again. Wow !!

Also for the first time in nearly 4 decades Iran finds itself in a relatively better geo political position than Riyadh. And If I may also say with very unsure factual underpinnings,  there may be a brief doing the rounds of the State Department and Pentagon that perhaps the end of the House of Saud is near and hence real politik demands a readjustment of alliances.

Bit far fetched I agree but not beyond the realms of possibility and probability.

So I believe that the Yemen conflict is really an internal Yemeni issue but with  huge impact on Saudi Arabias internal politics and the survival of the House of Saud. It could and likely will be a catalyst to destabilise the Peninsula. And this is really what scares the Al Saud. Their survival. More than 50% of the Saudi Army is of Yemeni descent. In fact if one goes back in history the entire population of The Peninsula originated from Yemen.

And at a tactical level the Houthies are advancing South to Aden, which they’ve just taken over and Saudi Arabia is to the North.

 In my opinion the battle the Saudis should be fighting is with the Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula or AQAP who the Houthis are also fighting. If anybody threatens Saudi Arabia and Mecca and Medina more its AQAP in its South in Yemen and DAESH on its East in Iraq and Syria.

So if there ever was a Shaikh Chilli cutting the branch on which I’m sitting stupidity by Saudi Arabia, this is perhaps right on top.

Currently,  Iran for long at the receiving end of “Saudi love and brotherhood”  has Saudi Arabia on the backfoot. It would like to see the demise of the Al Saud and replaced by a gentler government and therefore in all likelihood fully supporting the Houthis.

But I think while the House of Saud’s end is near, there is great danger that it may be replaced by much more radical groups more biased towards DAESH type of Islam and hence cause even greater havoc.

So Iran has to be very careful for what it wishes for. As the Chinese say it may just come true.

For us. We need to stay out.

House of Saud, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan and Iran

….. “Nawaz Sharif, specifically, is very much Saudi Arabia’s man in Pakistan,” Mr. Alwaleed says….(Prince Waleed’s interview with the Wall Street Journal)

.this is the most direct reference by Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz on how the Saudis exercise control in Pakistan through “their man” Nawaz Sharif and their “gifts”…..another leading European Geo Political analyst calls Nawaz Sharif ….”the Saudi ruling family’s “Shoeshine” boy ready to do their bidding at the drop of the hat….”

So the Saudi ruling family wants Nawaz Sharif to send “Sunni” Pakistani troops to help them fight a loosely confederated rag tag bunch of Yemeni tribes and Zaidi Houthis who’ve been fighting anybody and everybody forever.

These guys are as trigger happy as our own local Houthis called the FATA PATHANS! ! And in the 1960s they caused 20,000 Egyptian troops to reach the Maker quicker than they expected. So beware.

But what I say now, comes from a very senior serving 3 star horse’s mouth, who has told me that he would publicly deny if I quoted his name. So no names.

Some time ago in a conversation with then Prince Salman now King Salman, the Prince says to this 3 star ..” why don’t you Pakistanis get rid of the Shias of Pakistan”….. this was then repeated by a senior ranking Saudi General also a member of the royal family….

Well they may not be able to get rid of the Shias of Pakistan, but if we did participate in this so called Iran Saudi proxy war, it will open the floodgates of sectarian strife and civil war in Pakistan, where our Militancy in FATA will look like walk in the park.

It will also be another black scar on our conscience the other being the “massacre of 1000’s of Palestinians by King Hussein of Jordan ably supported by a certain Brig. Zia ul Haque in Jordan in 1970”.

…in the words of Moshe Dayan…. “Pakistanis and King Hussein killed more Palestinians in eleven days than Israel could kill in twenty years.”

The end of the House of Saud is on the cards. Another cliché. Writings on the wall. We don’t want to get sucked in this quicksand.

The Saud have done enough damage to Islam and Muslims since that terrible pact between Mohammad Ibn Wahab and Abdul Aziz in 1744.

Let nature’s nemesis take its course and let them get their just desserts ! (enough clichés)

And then ever so often people question my sectarian bias and asked if I was against the House of Saud, or the Yemen invasion aor Saudi Wahabiism.

So here’s my answer.

First, I think I will change my name to Mohammad Ramzan so people dont get thrown away by my so Shia sounding name and immediately label me a “Shia Sectarian Iranian agent”.

Second. I am vehemently, openly and inequivocally against all three.

Against Al Saud.
Against intervention in Yemen and against Saudi Wahabiism.

And all three are closely connected and stem from the same evil root. The unholy satanic alliance between Mohammd Ibn Wahab and the son of Saud,  Abbul Aziz in 1744.

The sectarian fissures in Pakistan are thanks to the Saudis, and no not the Iranians, unfortunately, far more stark then they were in 1980 and in 1993 during the Afghan civil war between the Saudi / Pakistani backed Hekmatyar and Haqqani and Irani backed Ahmad Shah Massoud.

And now on the Government’s decision whether to send Pakistan Army to prop up the Al Saud, participate in their dirty war and clean their crap.

Even during Gen Zia ul Haque’s time he flatly refused any Shia Sunni distinction.

And the Saudis now ask for a “Sunni” Pakistani Army!!!. Better ask for an Israeli contingent as well.

Gen. Raheel please be warned you’ll destroy Pakistan if you allow this Saudi Shoeshine boy, Nawaz Sharif to send our boys to clean their diapers.

If anyone is genuinely interested on the role Saudi Arabia has played in fuelling terrorism and militancy,  please read my thoughts on the roots of militancy in Islam and see how they start from Ahmed ibn Hanbal  in the 9th Century to Ibn Tayemmiah on the 12th Century, to Mohammed Ibn Wahab in the 18th Century to Syed Qutub, Mohammed Faraj, Abdullah Azzam, Ayman Al Zwahiri, Osama Bin Laden in the 20th Century and now Abu Bakr Baghdadi in the 21st Century. The link is at the end of this article.

And unfortunately whether we like it or not, historically it has been the Saudi Wahabi brand of Islam which was, is and will continue to be the basis of the terrible belief system of the ISIS / DAESH and the TTP and the Sectarian terrorists outfit in Pakistan such as the ASWJ, the Sipah e Sahaba and the Lashkare Jhangvi.

For the naysayers and the uninitiated a simple comparison of  Sunni doctors, professors, intellectuals, government servants been killed Vs Shias will answer this question of a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Pakistan.

And pray how many by these extreme Sunni terrorist organisations in Pakistan compared to Shias?

Sir. This was not a proxy war between Saudi and Iran in Pakistan. It was a Saudi funded genocide of fellow Muslims, the Shias in Pakistan.

As plain and as simple as that.

Over 70% of Deobandi mosques in Pakistan are funded directly or indirectly by Saudis.

Over 300 Million Dollars, as estimated by the USA government, of annual funding to TTP originated from sources within Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Kuwait.

36 Billion dollars were given to Saddam by Saudi Arabia to start the war against Iran which lasted 9 years from 1980 to 1989 and killed over a million people.

Over 100 Billion Dollars have been spent by the Saudi Government to propagate Wahabiism across the Globe subverting Schools, Colleges, Universities, Madrassahs, Political parties, political leaders. Nawaz Sharif being one most prominent. Terrorist organisations like the DAESH, TTP, the ASWJ, The Sipah e Sahaba and the Lashkare Jhnagvi.  Government’s like Pakistan, Mubarak’s and Sisi’s Egypt, Saddam’s Iraq before he invaded Kuwait and the list is endless.

15 of the 19,  9/11 Hijackers were Saudis. 20,000 Saudis came to Afghanistan to fight and created the terrible mess we are in.

These guys really deserve no mercy. They’ve destroyed whatever there was of Muslim unity.

So when people talk about Iran meddling in other countries, my question is what would you do if your entire neighbourhood, overnight, after the Shah of Iran was overthrown, became your enemy including the entire West and the World’s biggesst Superpower?.

Would you sit pretty and twiddle your thumbs and let the Saudis and their proxies walk over you and bring about a regime change or would you fight for your survival?

Simple answer. Fight for your survival.

So I’m not an apologist for Iran and I’m sure they’ve done their bag of dirty tricks but nowhere near the terrible terrible chaos that the House of Saud has perpetrated in the Region and in Pakistan.

Here’s another thing to think about.  Forget sects. Just look at Governance.

Iran has had 11 Presidential and parliamentary elections since their revolution in 1979.

It has a working parliament, a system that can imprison former ministers and or relatives of Presidents.

Yes the clergy still has power beyond what they should but it is waning.  The recent nuclear deal with USA is a battle that the conservative clergy lost.

Saudi is a Monarchy and a terrible one at that. No human rights, no right to vote, no nothing.

A police state like Stalinist Russia.

They treat us Pakistanis like animals. A Saudi is forbidden to marry a Pakistani. That’s your Ummah for you.

In fact they treat everybody like animals, except the Americans and the Europeans.

Finally sir. Iran is a neighbour with a long border with us. Not Saudi Arabia. We want a friend on our border not an enemy.

The House of Saud’s end has come whether people like it or not. Its as plain as the blue sky.

How and when? I dont know. But surely  sooner than people think and expect.

Many people comment on the relationship between Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah  and Iran when one points out the nexus between Saudi Arabia and DAESH.

To me its comical. So steeped in prejudiced hatred are the Al Bakistani supporters of Al Saud that they will run down an organisation like Hezbollah which has single handedly taken on Israel and fought the Israeli army to a standstill,  as if its something terribly “evil”.

It’s crazy what prejudice and hypocrisy can throw up!!

Lets be clear. Hasan Nasrallah is in an open alliance with Iran.

Hezbollah is fighting DAESH in Iraq. Hezbollahs enemies are not Yemen or Iraq or Syria or even Saudi Arabia but ISRAEL.

But for Hezbollah, Lebanon today would have been like the Palestinian West Bank and the Gaza Strip. A Ghetto.

But I’m not sure what’s their point?

Are they saying that Hezbollah and Iran are aligned.? Yes. Absolutely. Openly. Brazenly and Bravely.

Is it a bad. No. Absolutely not.

And then really the big question.

What have the Saudis ever ever ever practically done to help the Palestinians?

They let King Hussein of Jordan kill 25000 Palestinians in 1970 thanks to Pakistan and Brig. Zia ul Haque.

And surprise surprise, they sided   with the Shia Houthis against the leftist Yemeni President in the 60’s.

They have a tacit unwritten agreement with Israel to allow Israeli planes to use Saudi air space to attack Iran.

Has Israel ever uttered one word even in anger against the Saudis in recent years?.

Who do you think wants a weak Iran other than Saudi Arabia and the USA? Israel!.

Why did the Saudis fund the overthrow of the first and only legitimately elected Egyptian government of President Morsi, in over 5 decades?

Why are they so paranoid?

Because they know their time is up.

It would have been in their and everybody’s interest including Pakistan to befriend Iran.

But being the Americans shoeshine boys they wanted to become the local badmash and strongman after the Shah of Iran, so they created this Iranian bogeyman out to destabilize the Middle East and fanned the fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

But, In my opinion, I think, finally the Saudis have run out of rope.

Let them now hang themselves.

Here’s the link on how Saudis have fuelled militancy and terrorism.

http://shrmehdi.blogspot.ca/2014/12/the-roots-of-terrorism-and-militancy-in.html

A possible Middle East in 10 years – 2025

This is a hazardous and controversial attempt to try and see how events can unfold in the Middle East in the next 10 years.

My reasons for these assessments are at the tail end of this post.

These are purely based on my pretensions to be a geo-political analyst and a psuedo historian. So please feel free to differ.

Thank you

1. House of Saud unlikely to last out the decade. Don’t see another King from the Abdul Aziz family. Or maybe perhaps just one more.

2. Sectarian strife in Eastern provinces of Now KSA. Likely join Bahrain.

3. ISIS/DAESH will take over some parts of the Arabian Peninsula. In some cases already has through the AQITP in the Yemen. This area will eventually fall to DAESH who are a much much greater threat to the House of Saud than the Houthies can ever be.

4. Bahrain will be ruled by its majority Shia citizenry.

5. Other Monarchies in Gulf will follow KSA. Demographics in these countries will exercise their natural and logical state.

6. Iran will emerge as the one of the biggest Regional powers in competition with India and Turkey. And have a strong working relationship with USA. Pakistan could be another serious contender for Middle Eastern and South Asian leadership with India and Iran See 9.

7. Egypt will undergo another huge change dominated by the Right. Remain unstable.

8. ISRAEL will come under serious pressure from the USA for a rapprochement with Palestinians. Some sort of a half baked two state agreement witll be reached.  Israel will side with any and all forces to dislodge Iran. Will not succeed.

9. Pakistan will become a game changer finally breaking it’s umbilical chord with current KSA. But with a dangerous possibility of a sectarian civil war. Unless there are serious political reforms and grass roots political engagement and governance the wood is dry and the flames plenty. If we do then we will be The Regional Power second only to India.

10. ISIS DAESH will take about a decade to die.

11. Syria will split into Shia and Sunni ruled parts with Daesh. Assad will be history.

12. Iraq will split into Shia, Sunni with Daesh and Kurd states.

13. Iranian clergy will lose its dominant role and liberals will actively share power.

14. China and not USA will dominate and influence the Region.

I say the above based on my assessment of the consequences of the Invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the sectarian battles that have erupted, the Rise of ISIS and DAESH, the Arab spring, the assertiveness of the dispossessed and the socially and economically disadvantaged in the Middle Eastern countries

And very importantly the manner in which seemingly rock solid police states like Shah’s Iran, Qaddafi’s Libya, Saddam’s Iraq, Mubarak’s Egypt, Zin El Abedeine’s Tunisia, Saleh’s Yemen,  collapsed in months once these countries imploded through external and internal pressures.

Even the might of the Soviet Army and its dreaded KGB could not save the USSR from disintegrating. So what of these benign monarchies pretending to be Super Powers.

And for those holding a contrarian view…as my dear late departed father used to say, May Allah Bless His Soul….”enjoy the coffee my friend and lets talk in 10 years…” Insha Allah, if we are all around.

And a free coffee for every wrong deduction and assessment 🙂

And here’s an afterthought about Yemen not for me but from the Nation newspaper in Pakistan…worth reading to open the nostrils and smell the filth….

http://nation.com.pk/blogs/30-Mar-2015/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-yemen-conflict